Is femicide increasing in Mexico? Gender specific rates for Mexican States between 2005 and 2010 in Mexico

State Level Change in the ratio of Female-to-Male homicide between 2005 and 2010

J. Creechan

October 2, 2012

The following table and two scatterplots use INEGI homicide data from 2005 and 2010 for each State (and DF) to analyze how the proportion of female murders has changed. Specific gender homicide rates were calculated for both 2005 and 2010: that is, the female homicide rates were calculated by the formula SpecificFemaleHomicideRate= (number of females murdered/number of females in State)*100,000 and the male rates were calculated by the formula SpecificMaleHomicideRate=(number of males murdered/number of males in the State)*100,000.

Once the gender specific rates were calculated, a ratio of female to male homicides was calculated. This value is listed in the table as RatioSpCrYR_MH where YR is either 2005 or 2010.

The first table contains the ratio of female to male homicides for each year (2005, 2010). Column one lists states in ascending order from the largest drop in how much females contribute to the number of murders in a State to those States with the highest increase in the proportion of female homicides after 2005. For example, the first row is for Aguascalientes and it indicates that it dropped from a high of 36.4% female homicides in 2005 to a relative proportion of 14.6% in 2010. This means that the ratio of female to male homicides in Aguascalientes had dropped by 22 percentage points in Aguascalientes in 5 years.

The biggest increases in the ratio of female to male homicides from 2005 to 2010 is seen in Campeche where the percentage of female homicides (calculated using specific gender rates) escalated by a factor of 3: it changed from 6.7% in 2005 to 22.7% in the Campeche homicide data for 2010.

Gender specific rates were used to compute these ratios since there are large gender population differences in many Mexican States and there are more females than males. That means that the ratios used in this analysis are conservative estimates that generate a smaller proportionate rate for females than when the overall population is used. Basically, the denominator for females is larger and generates a larger gender homcide rate and the denominator for males is smaller and results in a larger rate. Overall, this leads to a more conservative ratio of female to male homicides than if a general (total population) figure had been used to calculate gender rates. It is also more conservative than if the absolute number of homicides within each State is used to compute a ratio.

The table is colour coded to indicate direction (UP-DOWN) and degree (magnitute) of change in the ratio of female to male homicides to male homicides (based on gender specific rates). The turquoise blue States (Aguascalientes, Colima, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas) showed the largest drop in female contribution to the homicide ratio between 2005 and 2010. Overall, there were only 25% (8 of 32) jurisdictions where the female contribution escalated disproportionately. In ascending order these are Nayarit, Chiapas, Michoacan, Tabasco, San Luis Potosi, Baja California Sur, Hidalgo and Campeche. All Mexican States have seen escalating homicide rates, but this list is interesting because with the exception of Michoacan are NOT the States considered to be major battlegrounds in Felipe Calderón’s war. It is true that San Luis Potosi and Hidalgo recently escalated into major plazas because of expansion or internal battles involving Los Zetas, but the fact is that most of the escalation has in 2011 and 2012 and is not represented by this data.

Perhaps many will be surprised to see which States experienced either a drop in the proportion of female homicides or experience little change. Among these are the traditional drug plazas such as Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Chihuahua. Overall, it appears that there has been little change in the female to male homicide ratio in those areas of Mexico where the drug wars have been bloodiest.

NOTE: RATIOSPCr05-MH is the ratio of gender specific crime rates for 2005 (Mujeres a Hombres), and RATIOSPCr10-MH is the ratio of gender specific crime rates for 2005 (Mujeres a Hombres). The value in each cell is computed using the gender specific homicide rates of Mujeres and Hombres for that State in that year). An alternative would have been to simply compute a ratio of the homicide counts for males and females in each State for each year. These figures were computed and produce no differences in the overall pattern. Source: INEGI

The data in the table has been plotted in scatterplots in two different sequential orders, and these scatterplots of the changes provide a graphic representation of how female and male homicide rates have changed relative to each other in the census period 2005 to 2010. The changes in these years are primarily related to Felipe Calderón’s escalation of the drug war. Ideally, the same analysis should have focused on his sexenio period (2006 to 2012), but the fact is that there are no homicide figures for 2012 and in fact the only years that the population estimates are reasonably accurate are the census years.

The following scatterplot uses these proportions and plots them against each other. The blue line (top line on the left) in the graph is the data series for 2005, and the red line (bottom line on the left side) is from 2010. The scatterplot also includes drop lines (gray) indicating the size of the change (drop) within each State, and an increase line (light red) indicating how female homicides have contributed a greater proportion of homcides. It is obvious that there is a part of the scatterplot on the right hand side there the two census years are indistinguishable from each other. The States of Sinaloa, Vera Cruz and Queretaro are essentially unchanged.

I also examined the correlation coefficient between “change in the overall homicide rate” (for each State) and the “ratio of female to male homicides” within each State and it is effectively zero (r=-.01). Basically, this means that there is no relationship between the increase in the overall number of homicides and the relative proportion of female homicides.

The ratio of female to male homicides in the scatterplot presents the data for each State in sequential order from largest decline to largest increase in female-to-male ratios between 2010 and 2005 

The ratio of female to male homicides in the scatterplot presents the data for each State in sequential order from the lowest contribution value for females in the female-to-male ratios in 2005. The pink blocks are States with increases and the green blocks represent a drop in the level female homicide contributes to the ratio.

Mexico is burning, but who is watching...

Felipe Calderón's drug war is looking more and more like a whack-a-mole children's and carnival game of chance. This is an appropriate analogy — given that it's a time for State Fairs and it is the final summer weekend before tschool begins. Wherever he sends the army, marines and or Genaro Garcia Luna to bat down a narco, another pops up somewhere else. And even worse, they are popping out of more and more holes — and some of them are even "moles" of another sort.

After a horrendous weekend of violent incidents, pitched battles and widespread bloodshed throughout Mexico, it's even more difficult to take Felipe Calderón at his word when he claims that things are getting better in the drug war. And other events during the past 10 days make it even more risible when examined alongside several optimistic reports that encourage business investments and promote a get back-to-business-as-usual viewpoint: Even an otherwise good Washington Post report nevertheless leaves the impression that the war is coming to an end in Cd. Juarez (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/in-mexicos-murder-city-the-war-appears-over/2012/08/19/aacab85e-e0a0-11e1-8d48-2b1243f34c85_print.html) and a Forbes/Global Post is even more enthusiastic about the potential for a new business boom in Juarez (http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/mexico/120822/mexican-economy-juarez-exports-outsourcing-multinationals-business?page=0,0 and http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2012/08/27/why-is-mexicos-murder-city-attracting-investors/). And even when those news stories about Mexico manage to make it into print, most of them ignore or downplay the bloodbath that continues and is far from being abated

Perhaps many reporters don't have time for fact checking, or a few are naïve and have been victimized by the deliberate and well-orchestrated public relation campaign to speak only well of Mexico  and convince the world that drug deaths are declining and only "about 50,000" even though Mexico's official statistical agency (INEGI) reports  more than 27,000 murders last year, and almost 107,000 during the first five years of Felipe Calderón's term.

And things are even worse than these INEGI numbers indicate. There is evidence that INEGI data under represents the true number of homicides (cf "Desconfían del SNSP", Rolando Herrera, Reforma 18-Ago-2012). Neither are there statistics to verify the estimated count of 10,000 or more who have simply disappeared from the face of the earth. And sadly, there are no true counts for the number of people who abandoned Mexico and fled for safety and sanctuary north of the Rio Bravo.

With the exceptions of discussions on google groups such as fronteralist or posts from informed bloggers (e.g. http://theragblog.blogspot.ca/2012/08/tom-hayden-javier-sicilias-caravan-for.html ), there has been little notice of the Caravan for Peace march to decry the outrageous levels of violence in Mexico and the uncaring treatment of the narco-war victims.(see http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=318167)  Unlike the American press and media, France's "Le Monde" boldly describe what is really happening and lamented the  lack of global attention  in a hard-hitting editorial — "Mexique, la spirale de la barbarie". (http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2012/08/23/mexique-la-spirale-de-la-barbarie_1749042_3232.html).

10 days of barbarity: Some of the events during one week of this Mexico that "turned the corner" toward peace.

Several optimistic reports (English language) about Mexico have appeared in the past few weeks and many of them reported the 50,000 casualty figure. Even reports that were intended to be sympathetic, have used this 50,000 number as if it were fact. Meanwhile, these are some of the other horrorific events in Mexico during last week that scarcely rated a notice north of the border:

• 11 people were executed and narco messages left on their corpses beside a highway in Guerrero that leads to the popular resort communities of Zihuatanejo and Ixtapa (http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2012/08/23/mexique-la-spirale-de-la-barbarie_1749042_3232.html)
• The bloodiest major cartel (Los Zetas) appears to be fracturing amidst an internal and brutal fight for turf. Long time leader and founder Heriberto Lazcano Lazcano ("El Lazca) is being challenged by the even more brutal Miguel Angel Treviño (El Z-40) . There are bloody, inhumane and horrrendous consequences that have been documented by both the Zetas and by others (http://www.blogdelnarco.com/2012/08/decapitan-al-comandante-charro-de-los-zetas-en-zacatecas/ and http://www.blogdelnarco.com/2012/08/lucha-al-interior-de-los-zetas-en-varios-estados/#more-14409) Also see http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=318153
• Elements of the Mexican Federal police reportedly captured the leader of the New Generation of the Cartel of Jalisco (with alleged links to Sinaloa) and unleashed urban chaos. The arrest of Nemesio Oceguera Cervantes "El Mencho" was followed by at least 22 narco blockades in the Guadalajara area. Buses, vehicles and trucks were burned and blocking streets in Mexico's second largest city. (see http://www.blogdelnarco.com/2012/08/detienen-a-nemesio-oceguera-cervantes-el-mencho-y-causa-22-narcobloqueos/ ). And a later report indicated that the police were mistaken — El Mencho wasn't captured even though everyone thought that he had been. (http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=318298)
• Another turf war involving the Caballeros Templarios and Jalisco New Generation resulted in at least 17 executions and the widespread posting of narco messages and warnings throughout Michoacan .(http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=318158)
• The weekly newsmagazine Proceso reported a confrontation involving unknown forces and army forces in Mexico State that left an estimated 30 "sicarios dead". (http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=318139) The official death report is lower, since no bodies were left the site. Only hundreds of spent cartridges and bloodstains remained as evidence of the skirmish. Eyewitnesses report that the bodies were retrieved by survivors of the shoot-out.
• There was an ambush and attack directed at an US embassy vehicle driven by a Mexican Marinero. The driver and his passengers — 2 men linked to the US embassy and a mysterious 4th person who was rumoured to have been a protected witness providing information about Beltran Leyva cartel operations in the area. Proceso (#1859) immediately reported that the two Americans were not registered diplomats and claimed that they were DEA agents (http://www.proceso.com.mx/?page_id=278958&a51dc26366d99bb5fa29cea4747565fec=317968). Later reports identified these two wounded survivors as CIA agents (see La Jornada http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2012/08/28/politica/005n1pol). Fortunately for everyone in the embassy vehicle, it was "blindado" and "bullet-proof" to level 7 (the highest possible armour and bullet proofing available). Twelve Federal Police officers were arrested and remain in detention in Cuernavaca. Their families claim they had been acting under orders and they have filed a protest and complaint about their relatives treatment with the National Human Rights Commission. 

These are just some of the of events from the past 10 days, and the level of violence reported in these examples makes it unimaginable how anyone might conclude that Mexico has turned the corner and is ready for the return of international investment and normalcy.

Furthermore, there are far too many outbreaks of violence within such short time-frame to treat these as isolated occurrences that are unconnected to a larger political and economic context. Something bigger is going on, but at the same time there are too many different dynamics at play to suggest that there is only one thing going on. We can only guess about the big picture, and must be content to offer impressions about what might explain this recent rash of violence.

Many of these incidents are indicative of a renogotiation of business "partnerships" and realignments that always occur during presidential transitions. Mexicans speak about the year of the Hidalgo (Hidalgo's figure is on the 1947 issue 5 peso coin and the modern 1000 peso bill, http://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/fulano_de_tal/2011/jul/14/the-year-of-hidalgo/ ) when they try to explain the mysterious personal enrichment that happens during the last year of a sexenio, and it is very probable that there is a narco-equivalent to the year of Hidalgo that results in a mad scramble and period of chaos not unlike those seen in Gold-Rush frenzies or the rush to claim land when territories are opened to those who get their first..

That is, many of the skirmishes and battles described above are probably about claiming, staking and preserving turf. Violence is a necessary and symbolic demonstration that someone has the huevos to control the plaza or to take it over. The escalating casualty count is the consequence of their strutting, and uncontrolled brutality  is represents both a threat to others and a reaffirmation that someone is strong enough to be the boss. Remember, there will be major bureaucratic change in the upper levels of most institutions in Mexico, and all external connections to bureaucratic power must be renegotiated; the narcos, the money launderers, the politicos, the police, the military, customs agents, border agents, air authorities or anyone else who wants to retain their to stake out an institutional turf in Mexico will be doing whatever it takes to preserve their place. With the return of a PRI president it is even more likely that there will be a wholesale bureaucratic switchover to placate PRI loyalists and place them in positions currently occupied by the true believers of PAN (...although many PANistas have been converting).

I don't think that this institutional reshuffling and realignment will affect all areas and States in the same way.  Not much may change in Sinaloa (which had no governor election), but changes will definitely impact other territories that are permanent fixtures in the drug scene, and will also affect other areas that had gubernatorial elections (Guerrero, Michoacan, Vera Cruz). Institutional realignments are also certain to leave the greatest impact in those regions that emerged as fracture points and contested plazas during the last half of Felipe Calderón's sexenio.(Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, San Louis Potosi and even Guadalajara itself) 
.

Perhaps another possibility for explaining this recent surge in violence is that they have been triggered by initiatives related to the US election and American politics. After all, think of the beneficial bounce to be gained by finally capturing El Chapo or any of the other big capos. Might it be the case that the DEA/CIA was turned loose with the blessing, encouragement and full cooperation of Felipe Calderón. If such operations are successful, President Obama would be able to showcase another bad guy brought to justice , and Felipe Calderón could ride into the sunset (or the University of Texas) and boast that he was in charge when El Chapo was finally captured. This is a less likely explanation for all of the violence that is occurring, but is a scenario that should never be dismissed in the land of magic realism led by a president hoping for a miracle to salvage his reputation. Furthermore, this scenario is believable given that the US political administration has begrudgingly acknowledged that there might be a "hit list" that allows the takedown of enemies of the State. Perhaps it is not farfetched, and maybe there is a justification for believing all of the rumours and reported increase of DEA and CIA agents in Mexico and Central America as part of the "Obama Policy". (see the review of Sanger's "Confront and Conceal" at http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/aug/16/obama-abroad-report-card/)

More specifically, the ambush on the road to Cuernavaca (Tres Marias) must certainly be connected to recent incidents and the dismissal of federal police from their assignments at Benito Juarez International Airport (http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2012/06/26/politica/003n1pol and http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimasal /2012/08/19/112057506-reasignan-policias-federales-del-aicm-a-otras-areas-seran-201cnuevos-agentes201d-los-que-atiendan-la-seguridad-en-la-terminal). The shoot-out between fellow agents in the Federal Police in the middle of Mexico International Airport is evidence that there are competing factions within the PGR and Federal Police agency. Who knows whether the Tres Marias ambush and attack was a deliberate maneuver by corrupt Federal Police, or whether it was carried out by colleagues who had been set up to be stooges by "colleagues" who were directly feeling theheat form the Benito Juarez shooting and and the firings and reassignments in its aftermath.

From Fisgón — La Jornada, Aug 28

In fact, we don't know where those airport police were "reassigned" after the airport incident.  Were any of those reassigned to the Tres Marias area? What happened to the uniforms and guns of those who were sacked? Where are the 29 Federal Police who were reported missing in the aftermath of the firings?

Personally, I suspect that those Policia Federal on those backroads near Tres Marias were stooges who were set-up with incomplete,false or misleading information — that's a common modus operandi in the byzantine political world inhabited by denizens at the upper echelon drug trade. "Machiavelli for narcos" is really a bible for those involved, and the Tres Marias incident has more twists and turns than found cumulatively in both seasons of the Borgias.

Meanwhile, bodies are piling up and disappearing before they can be retrieved by the police and the army and counted by authorities. Los Zetas and its military code "to leave no one behind" suggests that they were certainly involved in that 30-reported-dead shoot-out and missing bodies in Edomex, and the increasing rumours of an internal dispute between El Lazca and El Z-40 make that an even more likely scenario. And authorities in Guadalajara are left to figure out how to get traffic moving and look for funds to replace the burned out buses and government vehicles destroyed in the 22 blockades.

Almost no one in the english language press is paying attention to these incidents of violence, nor are they providing widespread coverage to Javier Sicilia's march for peace and justice that has included events such as the destruction of AK-47's and visits to gun markets to directly demand that gun merchants refrain form shipping weapons to Mexico.

I have a sickening sense of foreboding that the next two months will continue in much the same way as last week, and the world may not be watching. After all, it is is the year of Hidalgo and a time for self-preservation and enrichment.

Felipe Calderón's Revenge - The Vendetta against MVS

I recently realized how little I know about an important communication battleground that has the potential to impede political and social progress in Mexico and to silence the voice of protest. In fact, the battle in Mexico is another example of what has been called "the new cold war" by sociologist Philip N. Howard. In a blog that quickly became widely cited, Howard says:

"There is a new Cold War starting. It does not involve opposing military forces, but it does involve competing ideas about how political life should be organized. The battles are between broadcast media outlets and social-media upstarts, which have very different approaches to news production, ownership and censorship." (Read full article at: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2012/08/01/social-media-and-the-new-cold-war/).

Howard is specifically referring to the battle in Russia and other totalitarian states  to control and limit the power of alternative expressions and information outlets (think Pussy Riot), but his general argument about limiting access to news and silencing voices of dissent also applies to Mexico. The Mexican government has not made any obvious attempts to block individual access to social media, it has nevertheless undertaken to silence those who do not speak well of Mexico. The Calderón government introduced a campaign to encourage everyone in Mexico to say only positive things about Mexico, and in the final months of the PAN sexenio the Calderón government and the putative president elect Enrique Peña Nieto both contracted with international public relations firms to promote their personal positive image.


But the most important battleground of this "Mexican Cold War" involves a plaza dispute for Broad Band Spectrum licensing. Here, a fight to control the 2.5 GHz broad-band media rights has become the proxy battlefield where  powerful economic and political forces are engaged in a battle to control the hearts and minds and the pursestrings of Mexicans.

The political battle is about a licence for the 2.5 Ghz broadband spectrum (see a Forbes report at http://www.forbes.com/sites/joanlappin/2012/06/29/the-whole-world-is-moving-toward-2-5mhz-spectrum-as-u-s-investors-ignore-clearwire/) and whoever ends up with the rights to use 2.5 GHz will have the potential to control or to protect freedom of speech, journalistic integrity and a powerful propaganda machinery. The outcome will be one of two radically different alternatives— either a powerful ideological machinery or alternative outlets for public enlightenment and marginalized voices. 

THE ISSUE:

The case is about the Calderon government decision to take away a longstanding permission from one company that has provided 2.5 Ghz services in Mexico and to hand over this licence to one of the two existing duopoly media empires (Televisa). The license ("permission to use") was originally granted to the family of Joaquin Vargas Guajardo a number of years ago. At the time, this broadband range was not considered commercially viable and no-one appreciated its potential importance,  nor did anyone anticipate how it has become one of the central battlegrounds of telecommunications in the internet and wireless age. 

Joaquin Vargas and his family used the 2.5 Ghz broadband frequency licence to introduce and foster a wide range of telecommunication point-to-point services in their telecommunications company named MVS. Vargas describes the goals and purpose of  MVS this way (http://www.mvs.com.mx/inicio)

MVS COMUNICACIONES, Una empresa innovadora.

En 1967, el instinto de negocio y la visión innovadora de Joaquín Vargas Gómez guiaron la apertura de Stereorey, la primera estación de radio FM estéreo en México. En ese momento él no lo sabía, pero al crear esta estación, también puso los cimientos de lo que sería MVS, una de las empresas de comunicaciones más importantes de México y América Latina.

Ese espíritu innovador ha sido nuestro motor desde hace mas de cuatro décadas. Hemos sido pioneros en incorporar incontables avances tecnológicos en el mundo de las telecomunicaciones, muchos de ellos aún vigentes, y lo hemos hecho con la firme creencia de que en México hay talento y grandes posibilidades de crecimiento. Hemos sido innovadores también en la creación de contenidos, en el estilo y forma de comunicar e, incluso, en la manera de administrar cada negocio.

Google translation into English

MVS Communications, an innovative company.

In 1967, the business instinct and innovative vision guided Joaquín Vargas Gómez Stereorey opening, the first stereo FM radio station in Mexico. At that time he did not know, but to create this season, also laid the foundations of what would MVS, one of the largest communications companies in Mexico and Latin America.

That spirit of innovation has been our driving force for more than four decades. We have pioneered countless incorporate technological advances in the telecommunications world, many of them still in force, and have done so with the firm belief that Mexico has talent and great potential for growth. We have also been innovative in creating content, style and way of communicating and even on how to manage each business.

MVS grew into an innovative and diverse company that provided radio and streaming services via more than 130 broad band stations (radio and television), and approximately 2/3 of those stations were created and financed by MVS itself. Many of those outlets provided public information that was not available through official channels, and in many cases was the only place where alternative views to the official hegemony could be heard. Arguably, the success of MVS in Mexico in providing these services and yet remaining financially viable is a major reason that other international telephone and telecommunication providers are reviewing how to develop this same broad-band frequency elsewhere! Several regulatory agencies  (eg Australia, NZ) are re-evaluating how to licence and regulate this broadband range that opens up a wide spectrum of communication outlets.

The Importance of 2.5 GHz services in Mexico

Most importantly, many of the radio and streaming programs in Mexico engaged in outstanding investigative journalism and served as a true "fifth estate" in pointing to the abuses and corruption of government power, military violations of human rights in conducting the drug war, the non-transparency and inequality inherent in the Mexican justice system, and the outright abuses of power by the oligarchies that dominate Mexico. One of the most outstanding and well-known MVS voices is the journalist and talk-show host Carmen Aristegui. 

Several stations broadcasting from MVS frequencies and through broadband streaming stations became major thorns in the side of politicians of all stripes—including Vicente Fox, Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador and Felipe Calderón. Carmen Aristegui became one of the most famous journalists in Mexico because she regularly provided information and hosted experts who addressed the flawed drug war, the inexplicable ways in which Felipe Calderon's family and friends escaped prosecution in the aftermath of the ABC Day Care Tragedy that killed 44 children, and even the personal shortcomings and inadequacies of politicians like Felipe Calderon Hinojosa. Although Aristegui brought to light many facts and issues that would anger Felipe Calderón,  her interviews focusing on his well-known alcoholism were especially vexing and irritating and drove him into a black rage. There is no doubt that she was public enemy number one in Calderon's mind, and as a result MVS and Joaquin Vargas came under direct attack.

Suspension from broadcasting and reinstatement

In February of 2011, Carmen Aristegui's contract was not renewed under mysterious circumstances, but she was later reinstated with even less information. Carmen Aristegui provides more details about these events in a reforma op-ed column from August 24, 2012 and more details are being revealed day by day as documents and electronic communications are released and made public. (See Reporte Indigo- los BBLeaks de MVS )When these events happened, there was a public outrage and extensive news coverage in many of the traditional media outlets (La Jornada, Reforma, Proceso). Documents recently made available make it clear that this February firing resulted from herrefusal to apologize for a program in which she editorialized about Felipe Calderon's alcoholism and his inability to perform his duties.

But the removal of the licence from Joaquin Vargas was unlikely limited to the Aristegui incident. Over time, MVS and many of its other streaming services emerged as the prime outlet for leftist Progresista movement in the election campaign, and MVS provided several outlets for  intellectuals, government critics, international observers and informed citizens to make critiques and present reasonable alternative views to the government policies.

Felipe Finally Gets his Revenge

But Felipe Calderón eventually would have his pound of flesh! In July of this year,  the government withdrew this longstanding licence (Permission?) that had been granted to the Vargas family to offer 2.5 GHz services. Even more remarkably, it handed  the licence to Televisa in a gift wrapped pacakge— making the Televisa media empire even more powerful and influential in . There is no need here to point out how Televisa was directly involved in the election campaign on behalf of PRI's Enrique Peña Nieto nor that its blatant agenda of support for the PRI remains one main focal points the #YoSoy132 campaign against corruption, oligarchies and abuse of power. Nor is there time to review out all of the intricate ways that Televisa has involved in promoting Enrique Peña Nieto directly through its  public relations for pay service teams and on air favourable coverage.

Newspapers in Mexico have provided extensive coverage to this 2.5 GHz story, but to this point there are no English language reports about this blatant attempt to silence freedom of speech and alternative viewpoints in Mexico. If Felipe Calderon remains unchallenged, the duopolistic media powers Televisa and TV Azteca will emerge with even more influence, and the voices of reasonable journalists and intellectuals in Mexico will have limited outlet. To bend and paraphrase Televisa's founder Emilio Izcarraga famous dictum— everyone will be fucked, not just the poor.

Indications are that Joaquin Vargas is a decent and honourable man and evidence supports the idea that he has always managed MVS fairly and in a transparent way. He has never made waves nor tried to influence elections nor government policy, and has remained in the background. But he has been fighting back and has been confronting the Calderón government directly with the facts. Spokespeople (voceros) for Felipe Calderon are working hard to make the argument that this is just about a businessman who does not want to pay a fee to use a valuable bandwidth — but it is clearly much more ominous and has been described by Proceso as Calderon's revenge. (edition 1858 http://www.proceso.com.mx/?page_id=317434 and an in-depth report by Jenaro Villamil http://www.proceso.com.mx/?page_id=278958&a51dc26366d99bb5fa29cea4747565fec=317358)

The Mexican government also claims that it was Joaquin Vargas himself who offered to fire Carmen Aristegui, but in a press conference (http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2012/08/23/politica/002n1pol) Vargas calmly fired back and denied this allegation. He presented documents that clearly show that the pressure came directly from Calderón and that he was offered the renewal of his family license for 2.5 Ghz services if she were fired and removed from the air. (The documents are available at http://gruporeforma.reforma.com/infograficas/negocios/documentos_mvs_220812.pdf)

This retraction of this 2.5 GHz licence is a complicated and troubling incident with important implications for transparency, the freedom of the press, and for democratic development in Mexico. And sadly, it is NOT being covered in the English language press.

Fisgón - la Jornada August 25, 2012

Lorenzo Meyer (Reforma, August 23) published a column that presents basic facts and events, and also suggests why it is important that those who believe in intellectual, academic and political freedom should monitor this development closely. (see 'Quién consigue qué, cómo y cuándo' on Reforma's site, or look for a reprint of it in other Mexican newspapers). But Raymundo Riva Palacio describes the unique and unusual stance of Joaquin Vargas Guajardo, especially in the eje central column entitled Citizen Joaquin where he may in fact have offered to deliver Carmen Aristegui's head on a platter. Vargas may not be the perfect hero, but he has taken a courageous stance in opposing the oligarchy and he has done this in a country that is familiar with the brutality of power. Even if Vargas did offer to curb Aristegui, we might be able to forgive him given a business culture that thrives on threat and bullying.

This incident is a troubling threat to democracy, and it is truly hard to know whether everyone involved is a villain or a hero.  But the battle is one that deserves to be covered in more detail in the international press. If there are no external monitors and observers, Mexico will be in even more danger of becoming another 20th century example of totalitarian state described in George Orwell's "1984".

Global implications

This battle in Mexico seems to have focused on one specific area where very few people are paying attention to the larger consequences. But this is an important issue that has implications that extend far beyond the Mexican borders. The student protests and #YoSoy132 movement in Mexico undertand why it is important to curb and place limits on media power, and they have correctly identified the threat to democracy represented by the duopolistic powers of Televisa and TVAzteca. Outside of Mexico, few of us our paying attention to this battle and even fewer of us understand the implications.

Corruption and Fraud Charges Not Going Away— Lessons for Canada and the United States?

The corruption charges and vote buying allegations in Mexico are not going away in spite of a public relations campaign by Enrique Peña Nieto that is designed to sell his presidency to the international press. Lorenzo Meyer's observations ( ¿Una Eleccion Soriana? ) about fraud led him to predict that the 2012 election will be remembered as "the SORIANA election", and an editorial cartoon by Reforma's Camacho describes how other influential organizations have begun to direct their attention to the question of fraud. In Camacho's cartoon, Enrique Peña Nieto's "copete" (hair style) is turning into an uncharacteristically bad-hair-day.

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Camacho: From Reforma July 12, 2012 

Something to consider!

For many, the allegations of fraud and cheating  are thought to be "typical of Mexico" but not something that could happen in Canada or in the USA. However, maybe we should think about how money and the media have also been able to influence (and dominate?) elections in the United States and how questionable electoral processes have become more prevalent in recent Canadian elections.

How much money will Mitt Romney end up spending, and how much of that money will be channeled directly through the official election committees? How much of the funding and support will be directed towards his election from third party PACS? How much anonymous funding will be directed to the campaigns through "non-profit" and "non-governmental organizations" by those third party PACS. How much will we really know about who actually "paid" for an election ad,  or for "public service" announcements that are designed to promote the intereests of one candidate?

And lest Canadians think that they are immune to these things, they just have to consider how the Supreme Court of Canada is now reviewing whether or not scores of questionable voters cast ballots in a central Toronto riding  that was won by a mere 26 votes. And, Canadians also need to seriously consider the funding sources and the implications of  "Robo-calls" that directed voters to non-existent polling stations in the most recent Federal election.

Anyone who has been an observer during Mexican elections knows that there are many "checks and balances" in Mexico that are not part of the electoral process in either Canada or in the United States. When Mexico began to move toward a more open and competed elections in the 1990's, it established many measures as a mandatory national registry of voters (A PADRÓN) that includes voter registration identification and voter lists tied to those cards. Every qualified citizen is required to register and is issued an identification card  that they must use to vote. This voter registration list is more thorough and comprehensive than we have in Canada or in the United States.  In the USA there is  a hodgepodge of guidelines and processes that can complicate the registration process by limiting in to specific locations and specific time frames ( measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws ). In Canada, the voter registration list is sometimes several years out of date and the short election periods of a parliamentary system can mean that the voting list is constructed on the "fly". In contrast, the Mexican system is much more organized and comprehensive than the systems in place in Canada or in the United States.

The Mexican voter card includes a picture and a fingerprint of the eligible voter along with their address. That plastic card must match the "print out" version of the PADRON in a polling station. It's not possible for anyone to vote at the polling station unless the two pictures match: once, I was at a polling station in Mexico City where a transvestite or transexual was not allowed to vote because he was appeared at the station dressed as a female while his  voting card picture had a picture of him as a male. In Canada the rules are much looser— it's possible to enter a polling station and "claim residence" in a riding by showing a bill or having someone "attest" to residence.

There are also very strict rules  in Mexico regulating funding and campaign limits, and a fixed amount of money is allocated to official parties to use for the campaigns. IFE rules also define who can actually represents a party, and IFE tribunals can disqualify candidates or select among challengers claiming to represent a party. There is no equivalent organization in Canada or in the United States, and most of our funding and campaign limits are established by general bodies that can set rules but have less power to intervene. If something goes wrong in Canada or in the United States, or if a campaign violates the pre-established limits, the matter must be settled in court or in legislatures.

In other words, Mexico has more processes in place that are designed to limit cheating and corruption than exist in Canada or  the United States . The fact is, it is much harder to cheat at the polling station or through the ballot box in Mexico.This is not to say that it doesn't happen — it can be done and it is still common in areas where there are few observers. But since IFE was established most cheating in Mexico is done before the election and most of it is done indirectly through pressure and through bribery. And some parties are better at it, or have a longer tradition of doing it than others. The PRI had 20  governors who could use their resources to work outside the reach of the monitoring system put in place by IFE, and they took full advantage of their powers to fund thousands of spots and to directly bribe voters, The SORIANA gift cards and telephone cell phone cards have already been traced to programs that were implemented in Mexican states (especially EDOMEX).

Canadians and Americans seem to think that they are immune to kind of cheating that seems to have distorted the 2012 presidential election in Mexico, but facts don't necessarily support this complacency. In Mexico, IFE and the majority of people expect that cheating is the "norm" and they have attempted to create rules and guidelines that  limit its impact and that will hopefully foster a change in the culture of vote buying and cheating. But, some people — especially those linked to PRI —are very sophisticated and have learned how to successfully cheat and how to play on the fears and weaknesses of others. They are especially good at taking advantage of the poor and the impoverished. The history of fraud and cheating in Mexico is wonderfully described in an El Fisgón graphic tale of "another fraud predicted" in El Chamuco y Los Hijos de Averno (http://www.elchamuco.com.mx/j16/index.php/component/content/article/16-hijos-del-averno/mas-historias-del-fisgon/602 ). And the students of the #YoSoy132 movement have refused to accept that culture and tradition of cheating, and they have done a great deal to convince other Mexicans and the world that they are unwilling to accept the traditional way of voting. Many people have heard their message and are encouraging the #YoSoy132 movement to continue in their efforts to make elections more transparent and to eradicate the culture of cheating . For instance, the actor Damián Bichir is one of several Mexican celebrities and artists who has sent messages of support to the students (see the YouTube video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHtu6v6iUiQ&feature=colike)

Meanwhile, in Canada and the USA, people continue to assume that "goodness" will win in the end and that voters will choose wisely. Maybe there is something to learn from Mexico and from the students of #YoSoy132 when it comes to voting and to campaign strategies of political parties that believe they are entitled to win at any cost.